In clinical practice and epidemiologic research, one often needs to evaluate the performance of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models. The ‘average deviation about the probability threshold’ (ADAPT) is a new index to characterize the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model, according to a new study by researchers at National Taiwan University (NTU). This study has been published online on January, 2016 in Medicine.
Conducted by Dr. Wen-Chung Lee, professor of Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine in the College of Public Health, and Ms. Yun-Chun Wu, this study proposed to plot ADAPT curve for characterizing the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.
Many indices have been proposed to evaluate the performance of diagnostic tests or prognostic prediction models, however, little attention has been paid to the “utilities” of risk predictions. ADAPT is an index able to incorporate the utility values into evaluating a prediction model.
As shown in the paper, the ADAPT index is simple to calculate and easy to interpret. Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. “This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models” said Dr. Lee.