Dr. Gerardo Chowell, professor of mathematical epidemiology and the department chair of population health sciences at Georgia State University School of Public Health, was recently honored by the Infectious Disease Modelling journal with the “Best Paper Award” for the period of 2016-2018. He was recognized for his piece “Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts” (Volume 2 Issue 3, Page 379 – 398).
Drs. Jianhong Wu and Yiming Shao, the editors in chief of the journal, selected Dr. Chowell’s paper for the recognition.
The paper discusses how mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and temporal scales, generate estimates of key kinetic parameters, assess the impact of interventions, optimize the impact of control strategies, and generate forecasts. Dr. Chowell examines issues related to parameter identifiability, uncertainty quantification and propagation as well as model performance and forecasts along examples based on phenomenological and mechanistic models parameterized using simulated and real datasets in the paper.
Dr. Chowell also holds an external affiliation as a Senior Research Fellow at the Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies at the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.Friday Letter Submission, Publish on October 25